1, （商业/决策/并列）The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives(6). We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville(5), which has many such residents(8). Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs(1). The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full(2,7). We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age(3,4)." ★★14,40
1. Strong sales of exercise apparel do not necessarily indicate that Plainesville residents would be interested in NW's products, or that these residents are interested in exercising. (U.C) ★★★
2. The popularity of the local health club is little indication that the residents in Plainsville live much healthier lives now, and that NW will earn a profit from a store in Plainesville. (NCR)
3. The memo con¬tains no evidence to support the assumption that people who exercise regularly are also interested in buying health food and health-related products. (U.C) ★★★
4. The fact that a certain fitness program is mandatory for Plainesville's school¬children accomplishes nothing toward bolstering the recommendation. (NCR) ★★★
5. The arguer does not provide any information regarding the cost of building such a new store thus we can not be convinced that the new store will be profitable.(adv:disadv) ★★
6. The arguer fails to consider other possible factors besides residents’ interest in healthy lives that may contribute to the success of their existing stores.(confusing concurrence with causality) ★★
7. The recommendation fails to substantiate that this interest will continue in the foreseeable future. (P→F) ★★★★
8. The arguer unfairly assumes that Plainesville residents will prefer NW over other merchants that sell similar products. (U.A/I.T) ★★
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2, （社区，地产/提议/类比）The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.
"Seven years ago(3), homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville(1). In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting(2,4,5). "
★25,237
1. The committee fails to substantiate the assumption that this course of action was respon¬sible for the increase in Brookville property values. (post hoc, ergo propter hoc) ★★★★★
2. The committee fails to consider possible differences between Brookville and Deerhaven that might help to bring about a different result for Deerhaven. (F.A) ★★★★★
3. Many factors that could influence property value may change during these years, and the committee fails to rule out these factors.(P→F) ★★★
4. The proposed action may result in some undesired consequences.(adv:disadv) ★★
5. The proposed action may be opposed by some homeowners, or may not be effectively executed by all the homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.(feasibility of the conclusion) ★★★★
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3, （就业/论断/对比+并列）The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.
"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years(1), whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction(2,3). This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work.(4,5)" ★★★
1. The 15% decline that the author cites is not necessarily due to the vocational preferences of new law-school graduates. Perhaps during the last three years Megalopolis' large firms have had fewer and fewer job openings for these graduates. (NCR) ★★★
2. The vocational goals of first-year law stu¬dents cited in the survey do not necessarily reflect those of graduating students. (U.C) ★★★
3. The goals of students at one law school do not necessarily reflect those of the overall pool of graduates that might seek employment with Megalopolis law firms.(C.S) ★★★
4. The author falsely equates the proposed tangible incentives with job satis¬faction.(U.C) ★★★★
5. Small firms have many other advantages that large ones do not have, thus the large, corporate firms need to adopt other policies to attract more graduates.(sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
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4, （商业，地产/建议/对比+并列）The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.
"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time(1,2,5). Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000(3,4,6). Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month(7). Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams." ★★
1. The author provides no evidence that the quality of a real estate firm is directly proportional to the number of its agents or the number of hours per week that its agents work. (U.C) ★★★
2. The author does not provide any information about how many Adams agents work part-time.( ex parte information) ★★
3. Last year’s sales result may not be representative. (selective sample) ★★★
4. The disparity in sales volume can readily be explained by factors other than the comparative quality of the two firms, such as serving area and location.(NCR) ★★★★
5. For lack of data concerning the average number of homes sold per agent, we cannot evaluate the actual performance of agents in the two firms.(V.D) ★★
6. The fact that the average sales price of a home sold by Adams is higher than the average price of a home sold by Fitch does not indicate that Adams is more effective in selling homes than Fitch. (NCR) ★★★★
7. The disparity in the speed of a sale is explainable by other plau¬sible factors that would change through the time, or some essential differences of the two properties. (F.A/I.C/P→F) ★★★★★
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5, （医药/论断，预言/递进）The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.
"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable(1). Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug(2). Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis(3,4)." ★★★★
1. The arguer falsely assumes that a rise in the number of arthritis sufferers implies a rise in profitability for arthritis drug manufacturers, future competition may diminish the profit for each individual company. (I.E) ★★★
2. The expiration of the patent on Xenon does not necessarily lead to the decline in the profit of Becton, because Becton may have the advantage of market seniority. (I.E) ★★★★
3. The preference of particular patients does not indicate that Xylan is a more profitable drug, we do not know the manufacturing cost and sales price of Xylan. (adv:disadv) ★★★
4. We do not know what fraction of patients suffer from the most extreme cases of arthritis. (V.D) ★★
5. There may be new companies and new technology emerging in the future. (P→F/F.D) ★★★
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6, （文化娱乐/论断/并列）The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away(1); thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself(3,7). Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe(4), and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight(2). Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment(5,6). It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
★★★235
1. If the demand for a live jazz club in Monroe were as great as the applicant claims, it seems that Monroe would already have one or more such clubs. (negative evidence) ★★★
2. The popularity of Monroe's annual jazz festival and of its nightly jazz radio show does not necessarily indicate that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe. (NCR) ★★★★
3. Granted that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe, we cannot ensure that those jazz fans will attend the jazz club. (U.A) ★★★
4. The mere fact that several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe lend no significant support to the applicant's claim. (I.E) ★★★
5. The result of the nationwide study could not ensure that Monroe residents are willing to spend much money on jazz entertainment. (C.S) ★★★★
6. The arguer also does not inform us how much of the $1000 goes to club admission. (V.D) ★★★
7. The scale of Monroe’s jazz market, and the profitability of the proposed club are open to doubt. (I.I) ★★★★
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7, （政治经济，社会/提议/并列）The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council(3), because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled(1), air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses(2). If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved(4,5)." ★★★148
1. The argument unfairly assumes that last year's increase in the num¬ber of factories was due to the city council's decisions—rather than to some other phenomenon—and that this increase poses environmental problems for Clearview. (NCR) ★★★★
2. The argument also assumes unfairly that last year's increase in the number of patients reporting respiratory problems indicates worsening environmental prob¬lems in Clearview. (NCR) ★★★★
3. The editorial provides no evidence to substantiate the assumption that Braun was a factor in the city council’s decisions. (I.I) ★★
4. The mere fact that Green is a member of the Good Earth Coali¬tion hardly suffices to prove her willingness and ability to help solve Clearview's environmental problems. (I.E) ★★★★★
5. The author provides no firm evidence that elect¬ing Green is necessary to solve those problems, or that electing Green would suffice. (necessity and sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
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8, （食品，商业/提议/并列）The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.
"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year(3,4), and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years(2). Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food(1), we should buy Mesa Foods(5), and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country." ★★★
1. The assumption that Mesa's snack foods appeal to 14-to-25-year¬ olds is open to doubt. (U.A) ★★★★
2. The increased sales of Diabolique Salsa in the region where it is sold does not indicate that it will also gain success nationwide. (C.S) ★★★★★
3. We do not know how large is the snack food market in the region where Mesa’s products are sold, thus the 20% increase may be insignificant. (V.D) ★★
4. Last year's 20% increase in Mesa's profits may be an aberra¬tion, no evidence could indicate that this trend will continue in the future. (P→F) ★★★
5. We do not know the profitability of other food products of Mesa Food, thus could not evaluate if Omni should buy the entire company. (I.I/necessity of the solution) ★★★★★
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9, （教育/提议/递进）The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.
"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors(1). Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent.(2) Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University(3,7). To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors.(4,5,6)"
★★★211, 238
1. The dean provides no evidence about the number or percent¬age of Omega students who participate in the procedure. (V.D) ★★
2. The argument also assumes unfairly that the grade-average increase is the result of the evaluation procedure—rather than some other phenomenon. (post hoc, ergo propter hoc) ★★★★
3. The dean's claim that grade inflation explains why Omega graduates are less successful than Alpha graduates in getting jobs is unjustified. (NCR) ★★★★
4. The dean ignores other pos¬sible ways by which Omega can increase its job-placement record. (necessity of the solution) ★★★
5. Merely terminating the evaluation system might not suffice to enable Omega’s graduates to secure better jobs. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★★
6. The dean fails to mention the positive effects of the evaluation system. (adv:disadv) ★★★★★
7. The graduates from the two universities may not be comparable. (F.A) ★★
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10, （政治经济/对策/先并列后递进）The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms (2)throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market(1,3) has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon(4,5,6). To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices(8). Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers(7)." ★★
1. The author unfairly assumes that Excello's milk prices reflect those throughout Batavia. (C.S/quantity of the sample)
★★★★
2. The number of dairy farms does not necessarily indicate the supply of milk. (U.C) ★★★★
3. Even the production of milk in the country increased in general, no information is offered to show whether the production in Excello also increased. (C.S) ★★★
4. We are not informed about how much did the price of milk actually increase after adjustment for inflation. (I.T) ★★★
5. The author fails to consider the variation in the demand of milk. (I.T/I.I) ★★★
6. The author does not provide a cost benefit analysis. (I.I) ★★★
7. The author fails to consider other possible methods that may guarantee lower prices and an adequate supply. (necessity of the solution) ★★★
8. The proposed regulation may lead to undesirable consequences. (I.T/unexpected consequences) ★★★★★
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11, （社会/预言/并列）The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg.
"Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years.(8) During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper (1)as they did in previous years(2,3). Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double(5). Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey(6) said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted.(4,7)" ★★★
1. Aluminum and paper may account for only some of the materials West Egg's residents can recycle. (V.D))
★★★
2. We do not know the actual amount of recycled garbage in previous years, thus the doubling may be insignificant. (V.D) ★★★
3. An increase in the amount of recycled materials does not necessarily indicate a decrease in the total amount of trash depos¬ited in the city's landfill. (U.C) ★★★★
4. The recycling habits of West Egg residents are not the only factor affecting how quickly the landfill will reach capacity. (I.T) ★★★★
5. The assumption that increased charges for trash pickup will serve to slow the rate at which the landfill is reaching capacity is unwarranted. (U.A) ★★★
6. The mayor provides no evidence that the survey's respondents are repre¬sentative of the overall group of people whose trash goes to the city's landfill. (Are the respondents representative?) ★★★★
7. The mayor fails to consider many other factors that may change in the future. (P→F) ★★★★★
8. The consultants may have already taken the recycling factors into consideration when they made the prediction, thus the assumption that the available space in our landfill will last for longer than predicted is unfounded. (U.A) ★★
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12, （生产，劳动安全/对策/先并列后递进）The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.
"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents(2,4) than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours(5). Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta(6) and thereby increase productivity(1), we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep(3)." ★★181
1. The president provides no evidence that overall worker productivity is attributable in part to the number of on-the-job accidents. (NCR) ★★★
2. The president assumes that some accidents at Alta are caused by fatigue or sleep deprivation. (U.A) ★★★★
3. The assumption that Alta's workers would use the additional hour of free time to sleep or rest is open to doubt. (U.A) ★★★
4. The president fails to consider that the per-worker accident rate might reveal that Alta is actually safer than Panoply, depending on the total number of workers at each company. (V.D) ★★★
5. The president fails to consider possible differences between Alta and Panoply which render them incomparable. (F.A) ★★★★
6. Merely shortening the work shifts might not suffice to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
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13, （文化娱乐，商业/预言/并列）The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company.
"We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book "Squirrel Power," by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the short-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Wood's last three books have been best sellers(1) and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable(2). Second, the popular characters and story line in "Squirrel Power" (4)will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs(3,5)." ★★★
1. The arguer fails to convince us that Squirrel Power will also be a best seller solely because its writer Peter Wood achieved tremendous success in his last three books. (P→F) ★★★★★
2. The fact that the movie based on Wood’s first book was profitable does not ensure our game will also be profitable. (F.A) ★★★★
3. The arguer fails to demonstrate that the revenue generated by the game will greater than the cost. (I.T/adv:disadv) ★★★★
4. The arguer unfairly assumes that the characters and story line in “Squirrel Power” will surely be popular. (U.A) ★★
5. The arguer fails to consider other costs in producing the game. (adv:disadv) ★★★★★
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14, （商业/决策/先并列后递进）The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey(1) conducted last month indicated that many consumers(3) were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand(6) three months in a row(4,5). Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners(2) this coming spring(7)." ★★1,40, 117, 219
1. The argument depends on a dubious assumption that the national levels of satisfaction with store-bought groceries could reflects the level of a certain area. (C.S) ★★★★
2. The argument falsely assumes that consumers who are dissatisfied with store-bought groceries are likely to grow their own vegetables instead. (U.A/I.E) ★★★★★
3. The arguer fails to provide any information about what fraction of consumers buy their vegetables from supermar¬kets. (V.D/selective sample) ★★
4. The arguer fails to convince us that the gardening magazine Great Gardens is indeed popular among residents. (I.I) ★★
5. We do not know the content and circulation of the magazine, thus the fact that the magazine has sold out three months in a row does not necessarily indicate that people in this area are interested in planting vegetables themselves. (I.I/I.E) ★★★
6. The situation at one certain news stand does not prove that people in this area are interested in gardening. (quantity of the sample) ★★★
7. The arguer fails to consider the possible cost of the proposed action. (I.T/adv:disadv) ★★★★
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15, （经济，投资/建议/大并列小递进）The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol(1,5), and today low-fat products abound in many food stores(2). Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol(7), the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease(3,4). We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company(6)." ★★★★66
1. The author fails to assure us that the survey results accurately reflect the desires of most consumers, or that the results accurately predict consumer behavior. (Are the respondents representative?) ★★
2. The fact that low-fat foods are in abundant supply in food stores does not necessarily indicate an increasing demand for low-fat dairy products or a dimin¬ishing demand for high-fat dairy products. (NCR) ★★★★★
3. The newsletter concludes too hastily that Old Dairy profits will decline. (U.A) ★★★
4. The argument fails to provide any information about other products marketed by Old Dairy which may be low in fat and cholesterol. (I.I) ★★★
5. The author fails to consider other factors that may influence the consumers’ decision in choosing food. (I.T) ★★★
6. The mere fact that many Old Dairy’s food products are high in fat and cholesterol does not necessarily prove that their stock is not worth investing. (I.T) ★★★★
7. The author ignores the possibility that Old Dairy may change its policy and main product in the future. (P→F) ★★★
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16, （社会/提议/大并列小递进）The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.
"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people(3,4) than our state's program does(1). If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria(2), the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city (6)concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling(5)." ★★
1. The arguer unfairly assumes that the current condition of education and health program in Lucria is due to the lottery. (post hoc, ergo propter hoc) ★★★★
2. The two states may be different in many aspects, thus a similar lottery system may not prove helpful for Impecunia. (F.A) ★★★★
3. We do not know the base amount of citizens in each state, hence the fact that Lucria's health programs treat more people than Impecunia's programs lends no support to the argument. (V.D) ★★★★
4. The number of people treated by a health program does not necessarily indicate the quality of health care of the program. (U.C) ★★★★
5. The fact that Impecunia's residents spend $ 50 per capita on gambling each year does not suffice to prove that residents will spend much money on lottery. (U.C) ★★★
6. The situation in our capital city could not illustrate that people in other areas of the state are also interested in gambling. (selective sample/C.S) ★★★
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17, （社会/论断/并列）The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.
"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ(4). EZ collects trash twice a week(1), while ABC collects only once(5). Moreover, EZ—which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks—has ordered additional trucks(2,3). Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents(6) to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied' (8)with EZ's performance(7)." ★★★41,93,233
1. The author fails to substantiate the assumption that the town would benefit from an additional collection each week. (U.A) ★★
2. The author does not inform us the usage of the newly ordered trucks, and that of the current fleet, of EZ. (I.I) ★★★
3. We could not rule out the possibility that ABC has also ordered additional trucks to its fleet. (ex parte information) ★★★
4. The author fails to consider other factors such as the credit, the procedure and technology of trash-collecting of each company. (I.T) ★★★★★
5. The author fails to demonstrate that the residents care more about the frequency of trash collection than the charge. (U.A) ★
6. The au¬thor fails to provide assurances that the respondents of the survey are representative of the over¬all population of people whose trash were collected by EZ. (are the respondents representative?) ★★
7. Those respondents, or citizens of our town, may be even more satisfied with ABC's services. (ex parte information) ★★
8. We do not know what question was asked in the survey, thus we could not evaluate whether the answer “satisfied” is significant. (what question was asked in the survey?) ★★★★
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18, （道路交通/提议/大并列小类比小递进）The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently(1) lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit(4) and the accident rate throughout Prunty County (2)has decreased only slightly(3). If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago(7): increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads(8). Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported(6) accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago(5)." ★★★★55,119
1. The author fails to rule out the possibility that not enough time has passed to determine the effectiveness of this change in reducing the accident rate. (I.E) ★★★
2. The author ignores the possibility that the accident rate on the county's major roads has decreased while on minor roads not subject to the speed-limit reduction it has increased. (I.I) ★★★★
3. The argument assumes that all other factors affecting highway accident rates have remained unchanged since the county lowered its speed limit. (P→F) ★★★
4. The fact that most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit does not indicate that the policy is ineffective. (NCR) ★★
5. The author unfairly implies that the higher speed limit in Butler County has not served to increase the incidence of road accidents in that county. (lack of controlled experiment) ★★★
6. The cited statistic involves only "reported" accidents in Butler County, we do not know the percentage of accidents which are going unreported in that county. (I.I) ★★★
7. The situation at Prunty County and Butler County may not be comparable. (F.A) ★★★★
8. The author fails to demonstrate that road improvement will be both sufficient and necessary to guarantee fewer accidents in Prunty County. (sufficiency/necessity of the solution) ★★★★
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19, （商业/决策/递进）The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.
"One year ago, tickets for Double Rice's concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes(4). Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the band's increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency(1). Thus, in order to ensure that the band's success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale(2,3)." ★★★★
1. The author fails to establish the causal relationship between Ad Lib’s campaign and the Megalopolis success. (NCR) ★★★★★
2. The manager's claim that this success can be repeated elsewhere through duplicating the Megalopolis ad campaign might be unwarranted. (C.S) ★★★★
3. The manager assumes that Ad Lib's services are both neces¬sary and sufficient for this purpose. (sufficiency/necessity of the solution) ★★★★
4. The success in Megalopolis may have other causes, and is not a good indication of increased popularity of the band. (NCR) ★★★
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20，（交通安全/提议/类比）The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians(4), the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies(5) from 50 per day to 30 per day(6) during the summer season(7). By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents(1,4) that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau(3), when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals(2)." ★★★★
1. The author assumes that all other conditions in Balmer that might affect the rate of moped-pedestrian accidents will remain unchanged after the re¬strictions are enacted. (P→F) ★★★
2. The author fails to consider other possible explanations for the 50% decline in Torseau's moped accident rate last year. (NCR) ★★★★
3. Balmer Island and Torseau may not be comparable. (F.A) ★★★★
4. The author provides no evidence that the same restrictions that served to reduce the incidence of all "moped accidents" by 50% would also serve to reduce the incidence of accidents involving "mopeds and pedestrians" by 50%. (U.C) ★★★
5. We do not know what percentage of mopeds in Balmer Island is rented by the six companies. (V.D) ★★★
6. The author fails to provide accurate data about the current number of mopeds rented by the six companies per day. (I.I) ★★
7. The proposed regulation may not be necessary for the author’s purpose. (necessity of the solution) ★★★
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21, （生产/决策/大并列小递进）The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier(1), we should resume production(5). This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat(2), there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years(3,6), customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago(4), and our company profits will increase(7)." ★★★
1. The author fails to substantiate the assumption that the new fabric sup¬plier will be a reliable supplier of alpaca, and fails to provide any information about the quality of the fabric they supply. (U.A/I.I) ★★★★
2. The fact that competitor stopped making alpaca coats may just indicate diminishing consumer demand for them. (negative evidence) ★★★
3. Other factors may change during the past five years. (P→F) ★★★
4. The assumption that consumers will be willing to pay significant higher prices for alpaca overcoats is unwarranted. (U.A) ★★★
5. The author fails to consider the possible cost of resuming production. (adv:disadv) ★★★★
6. The fact that clothing prices have been steadily increasing for five years suggests that consumers might have less disposable income for purchasing items such as alpaca coats. (negative evidence) ★★
7. The memo's claim that the company's overall profits would increase thereby is unwar¬ranted. (U.A) ★★★
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22, （地产，商业/决策/并列）The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.
"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average(4). Nationwide(7), sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses(5). Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits(6). First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000(2,3). Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year(1)." ★★★★
1. The argument relies on an unsubstantiated as¬sumption that area demand for new housing will support additional home construction in the foreseeable future. (P→F) ★★★
2. Granted that more residents will purchase new houses, we cannot guarantee that they will choose expensive houses. (NCR) ★★
3. The speaker relies on other tenuous assumptions that area residents interested in buying new homes can afford homes priced over $150,000. (U.A) ★★
4. We do not know the base amount of the population and average family income in Steel City, thus the increase may not support the proposed home construction. (V.D) ★★
5. The speaker does not provide accurate data regarding the sales of expensive houses and lower-priced houses respectively and we cannot evaluate the actual market of each kind of houses. (V.D) ★★★
6. The speaker does not take into account some negative effects of the proposal such as the cost, difficulty in selling expensive homes, etc. (adv:disadv) ★★★★
7. Nationwide statistics can say little about the demand and preference of the local residents. (C.S) ★★★
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23, （商业，餐饮/预言/并列）A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years(1,2). Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study(4) has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily(5,6,8). Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable(7). ★★
1. The 30% increase might be insignificant because we do not know the base amount of seafood consumption in Bay City. (V.D) ★★
2. The past current does not necessarily indicate that seafood consumption will continue to increase in the future. (P→F) ★★★
3. The increase in consumption of seafood dishes in normal restaurant does not indicate that a restaurant specializing in seafood will be profitable. (I.E) ★★
4. The nationwide study showing trends among two-income families toward dining out and eating healthily does not necessarily apply to Bay City. (C.S) ★★★
5. The fact that two-income families express more concern about eating healthily does not indicate that they will necessarily patronize a new seafood restaurant. (U.C) ★★★★
6. Without any detailed data concerning the number of home-cooked meals these two-income families eat currently and formerly, and without knowing the actual level of their concern about eating healthily, we cannot evaluate if these families are a key factor in determining the profitability of a restaurant specializing in seafood. Other families may eat even fewer home-cooked meals and are concerned more about eating healthily. (confusing comparison and variation/lack of comparison) ★★★★
7. The argument fails to provide any information about the expense of establishing such a restaurant. (adv:disadv) ★★★
8. The fact that two-income families eat fewer home-cooked meals may lead to the popularity of catering services, delivered meals, but not necessarily that of a sit-down restaurant. (U.A) ★★★
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24, （生产/决策/大并列小递进）The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.
"In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant(1). Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant(6). First, of the locations that we have considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily(2,3). Second, since the average wage earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep production costs low(4). Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview's town council has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes(5)." ★★★100,226,240
1. Building a large central plant may actually increase the cost. (adv:disadv) ★★★★
2. The large population in Grandview may not suitable for staffing the new plant. (I.E) ★★★
3. The president fails to consider if the residents at Grandview are currently unemployed, or are willing to quit their current job to work at Viva-Tech. (feasibility of the conclusion) ★★★★
4. Although Grandview’s workers average wage is less than in other locations, other expense might be higher. (I.T) ★★★
5. We are not informed about taxation policy and the actual amount of city taxes in Grandview after the first three years. (I.I) ★★★
6. Other suitable locations might be available while ignored by the president. (necessity of the solution/ex parte information) ★★★
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25, （城市/决策/类比）The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago(1,5), the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent(6). The best way(4) to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View(2,3)." ★2,237
1. The arguer fails to point out how the golf course and resort hotel actually contributed to the economy of Ocean View. (post hoc, ergo propter hoc) ★★★★
2. Ocean View and Hopewell may not be comparable. (F.A) ★★★★★
3. The argument relies on an unwarranted assumption that Hopewell lacks golf course and resort hotel, or that the existing ones are not attractive enough. (U.A) ★
4. The arguer ignores other possible methods that may improve Hopewell’s economy more efficiently. (necessity of the solution) ★★★
5. The mayor assumes too hastily that the golf course and hotel will continue to benefit Hopewell's overall economy. (P→F) ★★★★
6. The 30 percent increase in tax revenues of Ocean View does not indicate that its economic condition is better than Hopewell’s, because we do not know the base amount of tax revenues to begin with. (V.D) ★★
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26, （人事/提议/并列）The following appeared in a memo from the chairperson of the school board in the town of Saluda.
"For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel City High School, and during that time the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band competitions(1). In addition, the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved markedly over the past five years(3). Because of such successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the general music education programs for the entire Saluda school system(2,4)." ★★85,140,209,225
1. The three band awards might not be attributable to Schade’s abilities and efforts. (NCR) ★★★★★
2. The skills that Schade possesses and that resulted in the band's winning these awards might not be the same skills required for the district position. (F.A) ★★★★
3. The argument unfairly assumes that the improvements in the quality of music facilities and instruments in the school can be attributed to Schade’s abilities and efforts. (NCR) ★★★★★
4. Other candidates might be even more suitable for the position. (necessity of the solution) ★★★
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27, （管理运营/决策/递进）The following appeared as part of a memo from the president of Automate, a company that manufactures automobiles.
"It has come to my attention that Sparks, Inc., the manufacturing company that just moved into our state, is advertising job openings(1) at salaries that are twice as high as those paid to our experienced assembly-line workers. Some of our employees(4,5) have already left to work for Sparks(2). In order to keep our best staff, we must pay them salaries equal to those Sparks pays its employees(6). Otherwise we will continue to lose employees in the future(3), because Sparks must staff the additional new plants that it plans to build in the state(7)." ★★★
1. We do not know what kind of jobs are being advertised by Spark. (I.I) ★★★
2. Other reasons may well explain why some of our employees left to work for Sparks. (NCR) ★★
3. The president fails to prove that there are still significant number of our employees would leave Automate if the company does not raise its employees’ salaries. (I.I) ★★★
4. We need to know what fraction of our employees left for Sparks, (V.D) ★★★
5. We need to know if the employees who left for Sparks are valuable for Automate. (I.I) ★★★★
6. The president does not consider other measures to keep its valuable employees rather than raising the salaries. (I.T) ★★★★
7. The fact that Sparks plans to build additional new plants does not indicate that Automate will continue losing valuable employees. (I.E) ★★
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28，（教育/决策/大并列小递进）The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district.
"A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school for 100 schoolchildren(1) ages five to twelve, found that children on the breakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or late for school(2). Clearly, eating breakfast before school plays a role in reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school(4). Therefore, in order to reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic performance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary schools(3), we should provide breakfasts(5) for all students(6,7) before each school day(8)." ★★★★
1. The participants of the study may not be representative of all schoolchildren. (are the respondents representative?) ★★★
2. The reduced absenteeism might have been due to other explanation. (NCR) ★★★
3. Secondary-school students might not behave the same as elementary schoolchildren under similar conditions. (F.A) ★★★
4. The better performance of the children cited by the superintendent may results from other reasons rather than eating breakfast regularly. (NCR) ★★★★
5. The superintendent does not prove that the district’s breakfast would be healthy enough, or that our students will eat the breakfast regularly. (U.A) ★★★
6. The feasibility of providing breakfast for each student is open to doubt. (feasibility of the conclusion) ★★★★
7. The conclusion that all students need to eat breakfast provided by the district is unfounded. (C.S) ★★★★
8. Other possible measures could also be applied to achieve the superintendents’ purpose. (sufficiency/necessity of the solution) ★★★
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29, （选举，环境/论断，建议/类比+并列）When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to announce her intention to close all(3) Lake City parks to automobile traffic(1,2), thus following the example of the former mayor of Plainsville, Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville(4). This action would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom participate in the community's recycling program(5), and would guarantee McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor(6,7). ★★★
1. No evidence is provided to indicate that citizens of Lake City prefer prohibiting automobile traffic in all Lake City parks. (I.E) ★★★★★
2. The author fails to demonstrate that the environmental problems at Lake City are mainly caused by automobile traffic. (I.I) ★★★★★
3. The author fails to consider the feasibility and necessity of closing all Lake City parks to automobile traffic. (feasibility of the conclusion/C.S) ★★★★
4. The situations of Lake City and Plainsville might not be quite different. (F.A) ★★★
5. The fact that most of the citizens of Lake City participated in the community’s recycling program does not indicate that they are also highly concerned about environmental problems. (U.C) ★★★★
6. The citizens of Lake City might be concerned about other problems rather than environment. (I.E) ★★★
7. The author ignores many other candidates who might be more competent than McAllister. (I.T) ★★★
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30，（社会/提议/大递进小并列）According to information recently reported in the Eliottown Gazette, the number of people who travel to Eliottown has increased significantly over the past several years. So far this year over 100,000 people have arrived on flights to Eliottown's airport, compared with only 80,000 last year and 40,000 the year before. Eliottown's train station has received more than 50,000 passengers this year, compared with less than 40,000 last year and 20,000 the year before(5). Clearly tourism(2) in Eliottown has been increasing, thanks to the new Central Park and Museum of Modern Art that opened last year(1). Therefore, the funding for the park and museum should be increased significantly(3,4). ★★★42
1. The author fails to point out how the Central Park and the Museum actually contributed to the tourism in Eliottown. (post hoc, ergo propter hoc)★★★★★
2. The passengers arrived Eliottown may came here for purposes other than tourism. (I.I) ★★★★★
3. No evidence is provided to show that the park and museum need more funding. (necessity of the solution) ★★★
4. The author ignores other possible methods that may also improve Eliottown’s tourism. (necessity of the solution) ★★★
5. The situation may vary in the following years. (P→F) ★★
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