Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Volga and Smile

Volga Profile


The Volga is the sensitivity of the option vega to the implied volatility. In mathematical terms it is the second derivative of the option price with respect to the implied volatility. In simple terms in tells by how much the option vega changes when the implied volatility changes.  Options trading is also sometimes called volatility trading and the Volga is a measure of the convexity in the terms of volatility of an option price.

The Volga of the call and the put is identical and follows this profile:



The Volga of options increases as the maturity increases, although the Volga of at-the-money options is close to zero.

Let’s look at a numerical example:

  Spot 1500
Strike 1400
Volatility Call Price Vega Volga Maturity 0.5
15% 127.67698 3.160734703 0.101868 Volatility 15.0%
16% 130.88596 3.254623503 Interest Rates 3.0%
Dividend yield 2.0%
Vega Difference 0.093888799


It appears that the Vega exposure of call option move from 3.1607 to 3.2546. The theoretical value given by the Black-Scholes model is equal to 0.1018 which is close to the difference in our example.



  Spot 1400
Strike 1400

 
Volatility  Call Price Vega Volga Maturity 1
15% 88.642076 5.419936363 -0.00043 Volatility 15.0%
16% 94.061726 5.419294665 Interest Rates 3.0%
Dividend yield 2.0%
Vega Difference -0.0006417


From this example the At-The-Money call option has a Volga which is very slightly negative.


Volga in Practice

For the individual investor the Volga is one of the least important Greeks as for the individual investor his position will be mostly dominated by the delta.

For the professional  options trader, the Volga is quite important because it is the convexity to the the parameters which option traders take positions on. It is not possible to hedge out the Vega to be left with just the Volga so while the traders keep that exposure in mind, it is mostly a second order risk for them. That being said, when market makers run out f the money long put positions and implied volatility goes up, then their Vega increases as well, so they benefit from some convexity effect.


Spot price, TTE(time to expiry) and Volga  

volga
Volga: sensitivity of vega to change in implied volatility

Vega = S0*SQRT(T)*N'(d1)

where,

d1= [ ln(S0/K)+rt ] / [vol*SQRT(T)] + [0.5*vol*SQRT(T)]

N'(x) is PDF of SND

Take a numeric example:

Say we have a FX option quotes as follows:


Underlying spot price 90.0000
Tenor (days) 90
Tenor (years) 0.247
r1 (base/foreign/denominator) 0.00% 1.000
r2 (counter/domestic/numerator) 0.00% 1.000
Underlying forward price 90.000
Premium included in delta (y/n) 0
Market Instruments: Market Vol Equ Vol
DN Straddle 32.00%
25d Risk Reversal -1.700% -1.721%
25d Strangle 0.50% 0.511%



With FX Volatility construction method, we can get the strike and Volga as follows:

Volga Strike
9.458184 83.50
7.320253 84.35
5.355508 85.20
3.615208 86.05
2.146051 86.90
0.988551 87.75
0.175647 88.60
-0.26838 89.44
-0.32863 90.29
5.99E-06 91.14
5.99E-06 91.14
0.513076 91.79
1.246566 92.45
2.19156 93.10
3.336307 93.75
4.666511 94.40
6.165659 95.05
7.815377 95.70
9.595818 96.35
11.48605 97.01

As we increase spot rate to 110, all Volga are positive:


Volga Strike
37.39092 83.50
38.85654 86.60
37.8378 89.70
34.10818 92.80
27.85596 95.90
19.84933 99.00
11.44894 102.10
4.364568 105.20
0.204116 108.30
3.03E-06 111.40
3.03E-06 111.40
5.154842 115.12
14.88374 118.84
26.75301 122.57
38.1841 126.29
47.23246 130.02
52.92872 133.74
55.20457 137.46
54.58597 141.19
51.85088 144.91

As volga represents the convexity, for the first scenario, there will be a small bump in the smile around ATM area.

The effect get amplified as TTE(Time to Expiry) increases. As time goes by, Volga curve moves up as follows:

 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hey Funheng Wu,

I tried to reproduce your results with the black-Scholes formula (I'm talking about the volga) but unfortunatly I wasn't able to reproduce them. can you please release the formula used for the calculation.

Thank you.